[Selelekela] Ka Hlakola 2021, Mopresidente oa Citigroup Joe Biden o saenne Taelo ea Phethahatso ea 14017, e hlokang hore mmuso oa hae o etse tlhahlobo e felletseng ea liketane tsa phepelo masimong a mane a maholo, ho kenyeletsoa li-semiconductor, libeteri tse ncha tsa matla, liminerale tse sa tloaelehang tsa lefats'e, le lisebelisoa tsa bongaka, ho khetholla likotsi, ho sebetsana le bofokoli, le ho nts'etsapele maano a ho ntlafatsa ho mamella ketane ea phepelo. Ha molaoli a saena taelo, o ile a qotsa maele a reng "Ka lebaka la ho hloka manala, seeta sea lahleloa. Ka lebaka la ho hloka lieta, pere ea lahleha," joalo-joalo, ho fihlela 'muso o oa. Phoso e nyane ka ho fetisisa ketane ea phepelo e ka ama polokeho ea Amerika, mesebetsi, malapa le sechaba. Ho etsa tlhahlobo ena e felletseng, tsamaiso ea Biden e thehile sehlopha sa mesebetsi sa ka hare se akaretsang mafapha le mekhatlo ea mmuso e fetang leshome le metso e 'meli. Bahlanka ba tsamaiso ba buisane le basebetsi, likhoebo, litsi tsa thuto, Congress, le balekane le balekane ba US ho khetholla bofokoli le ho nts'etsapele litharollo.

Tlaleho ea tlhahlobo ea Citi State e lokela ho etsoa ka Phuptjane 2021.

1. Mabapi le li-semiconductors

Li-semiconductors ke motheo oa lisebelisoa tsa lipotoloho tse kopaneng tse bohlokoa bophelong ba sejoale-joale ba letsatsi le letsatsi. Li-semiconductors ke karolo ea bohlokoa ea bophelo ba letsatsi le letsatsi ba bareki ba mehleng ea kajeno, tse fumanoang linthong tsa ntlo tse kang li-switches tse khanyang, li-openers tsa karache le lihatsetsi, hammoho le liselefouno, lik'homphieutha le likoloi. E fumanoa lihlahisoa tse rarahaneng haholoanyane. Batho ba kajeno ba e sebelisa letsatsi le leng le le leng (ba re hora e 'ngoe le e' ngoe, motsotso o mong le o mong, motsotsoana o mong le o mong). Li-circuits tse thehiloeng ho semiconductor ke "DNA" ea mefuta e fapaneng ea theknoloji e fetotseng likarolo tsohle tsa moruo, ho tloha temo, lipalangoang, tlhokomelo ea bophelo bo botle, puisano le Inthanete. Indasteri ea semiconductor ke enjine e kholo ea kholo ea moruo le tlhahiso ea mesebetsi Citi. Hoo e ka bang lihlahisoa tsohle tsa theknoloji ha li arohane le li-semiconductors; ha e le hantle, mekhoa e tsoetseng pele ka ho fetisisa e boetse e ke ke ea arohanngoa le tšehetso ea li-semiconductors.

Tlaleho e hakanya hore indasteri ea semiconductor ea US e tla ba le thekiso ea selemo le selemo ea $ 208 bilione ka 2020, e leng karolo ea hoo e ka bang halofo ea 'maraka oa lefats'e. Leha ho na le seoa sa lefats'e sa COVID-19, thekiso ea lihlahisoa tsa lefats'e tsa semiconductor e eketsehile ka 6.5% ka 2020. Ho latela likhakanyo tsa SIA, 'maraka oa lefats'e oa semiconductor o tla fihlela thekiso ea selemo le selemo ea $726 bilione ka 2027, ka sekhahla sa kholo ea selemo le selemo sa 4.7%. Li-semiconductors ke thepa e tsoang kantle ho naha ea Amerika, ka thekiso ea kantle ho naha ea $47 bilione ka 2020, e maemong a bone kamora lifofane, oli e hloekisitsoeng le oli e tala.

Le hoja indasteri ea semiconductor ea US e nka hoo e batlang e le halofo ea chelete ea lihlahisoa tsa lihlahisoa tsa lihlahisoa tsa lefats'e, tlaleho ea tlhahlobo e lumela hore matla a tlhahiso ea semiconductor ea US e le karolo ea tlhahiso ea lefats'e e theohile ho tloha 37% lilemo tse 20 tse fetileng ho ea ho 12% kajeno. Likhoebo tsa US, ho kenyeletsoa le lik'hamphani tse kholo tsa semiconductor, li itšetlehile haholo ka linaha tsa kantle ho naha, haholo Asia, e bakang likotsi tsa phepelo ea thepa.

Tlaleho ea lipatlisiso e hlahloba ketane ea phepelo ea semiconductor ka likarolo tse hlano tse amanang le tsona: (1) moralo; (2) tlhahiso; (3) ho kopanya, ho lekoa le ho paka; (4) thepa; le (5) thepa ea tlhahiso.

2. Liqeto tsa mantlha:

moqapi:

The US semiconductor design ecosystem e matla ebile e etella pele lefats'e, empa lik'hamphani tsa US li itšetlehile haholo ka thekiso ho ea Chaena ho boloka kholo ea phaello le matsete a malapeng (tlhokomelo: lehae) lipatlisiso le nts'etsopele (R&D). Ho feta moo, lifeme tsa meralo tsa US li itšetlehile haholo ka thepa e lekanyelitsoeng ea bohlale (IP), basebetsi le lisebelisoa tsa tlhahiso ho tsamaisa khoebo. Lisebelisoa tsena li bohlokoa ho tlisa lihlahisoa 'marakeng.

etsa:

United States ha e na bokgoni bo lekaneng ba tlhahiso ya di-semiconductor. United States e itshetlehile haholo ka Taiwan ho fana ka di-chip tsa logic di-node tse tswetseng pele tsa tshebetso, mme e itshetlehile ka Taiwan, Korea Borwa le China e kgolo ho fihlela tlhoko ya di-chip tsa di-node tsa tshebetso tse hodileng.

Packaging e Lekiloeng le e Tsoetseng Pele:

Bakeng sa ho paka le liteko tsa morao-rao tsa morao-rao tsa morao-rao tsa semiconductor, United States e itšetlehile haholo ka lisebelisoa tsa kantle tse tsepamisitsoeng Asia. Ho feta moo, ha li-chips li ntse li rarahana le ho feta, mekhoa e tsoetseng pele ea ho paka e emela sebaka se ka bang teng sa nts'etsopele bakeng sa tsoelo-pele e kholo ea theknoloji nakong e tlang. US e haelloa ke lintho tse hlokahalang tsa tikoloho, 'me US ha se sebaka se sa bitseng chelete e ngata ho nts'etsapele indasteri e tsoetseng pele ea ho paka, mme matsete a maholo a China a ka phahamisa mmaraka.

lintho tse bonahalang:

Tlhahiso ea li-semiconductors e hloka lisebelisoa tse makholo, ho theha mathata bakeng sa ketane ea phepelo ea tlhahiso. Likhase tse ngata le lik'hemik'hale tse metsi tse sebelisoang tlhahisong ea semiconductor li hlahisoa United States, empa barekisi ba kantle ho naha ba laola 'maraka oa li-wafers tsa silicon, li-photomasks le li-photoresists.

Lisebelisoa tsa Tlhahiso:

Ntle le mechini ea lithography, bakeng sa lisebelisoa tse ngata tsa ho etsa li-semiconductor tse ka pele, lik'hamphani tsa Amerika li na le karolo e kholo ea lefats'e.

Ntle le United States, tlhahiso ea lisebelisoa tsa tlhahiso e tsepamisitsoe Netherlands le Japane. Ka lebaka la boholo bo fokolang ba tlhahiso ea semiconductor United States, kholo ea baetsi bana ba lisebelisoa e itšetlehile haholo ka thekiso ka ntle ho United States.

3. Mabapi le moralo o kopanetsoeng oa potoloho

Histori, sethaleng sa pele sa nts'etsopele ea indasteri ea semiconductor (chip), moralo o kopanetsoeng oa potoloho e ne e se indasteri e ikemetseng. Moralo oa lipotoloho tse kopaneng o etsoa ke lik'hamphani tsa IDM tse laolang tšebetso eohle ea tlhahiso. Joalo ka Intel le Texas Instruments United States ke baemeli ba tloaelehileng ba likhoebo tse joalo. Kajeno, moralo oa IC o ntse o tsoela pele ho etsoa ke "lik'hamphani tsa meralo tse se nang mashano" tse itšetlehileng ka lik'hamphani tse ikemetseng (lithehiloe) ho phethela tlhahiso ea li-IC. Keketseho ea li-Foundries le matsete a amanang le tsona li entse hore ho be bonolo ho kena indastering ea meralo bakeng sa lipotoloho tse kopaneng. Sena se fella ka khatello e tlase haholo indastering e kopaneng ea meralo ea potoloho ho feta ea tlhahiso le lisebelisoa, mme e etsa hore tlhahiso ea potoloho e kopaneng e itšetlehe haholo ka Taiwan.

Leha litšitiso tsa ho kena li le tlase, lik'hamphani tsa meralo e se nang mahlale li tlameha ho sebelisana haufi-ufi le li-Foundries ho netefatsa hore meralo e loketse ts'ebetso ea tlhahiso, 'me ba itšetleha ka barekisi ba IP (hangata lik'hamphani tse ling tsa semiconductor tse hlahisang mahlale a bohlokoa), hammoho le meralo ea elektroniki Automation (EDA) tšehetso ea khoebo ea software. Mekhahlelo ka bobeli e holimo le e tlase ea indasteri ea meralo ea IC e tsepamisitsoe haholo. Bafani ba bohlokoa ba IP le bafani ba EDA ba boholong ba United States, empa boholo ba lingaka tsa bona li fumaneha kantle ho United States.

Sebopeho sa indasteri

Ka lebaka la mefuta e fapaneng ea lihlahisoa tseo likhoebo li kenang ho tsona, tekanyo, theknoloji le sebopeho sa likhoebo tse sebetsanang le semiconductor kapa moralo o kopaneng oa potoloho li fapane haholo. Tlaleho ena e arola li-semiconductors tse kopaneng tsa potoloho ka mefuta e meraro e meholo: li-circuits tsa logic kapa tsa dijithale, memori le li-circuits tsa analog. Ka 2020, li-circuits kapa li-circuits tse kopaneng tsa dijithale li etsa karolo ea 42% ea kakaretso ea karolo ea mmaraka; lihlahisoa tsa memori li etsa hoo e ka bang 26%; li-circuits tsa analog tse kopantsoeng li etsa hoo e ka bang 14%; lihlahisoa tse ling tsa semiconductor ke lihlahisoa tse sa kopanngoeng tsa potoloho, ho kenyelletsa le lisebelisoa tsa discrete, lisebelisoa tsa optoelectronics le lisebelisoa tsa sensor.

Li-circuits tse kopaneng tsa logic kapa dijithale ke likarolo tsa mantlha tsa likhomphutha kapa likarolo tsa komporo mme ke karolo e kholo ka ho fetisisa 'marakeng oa lihlahisoa tsa semiconductor. Li-chips tsa logic li etsa karolo ea 42 lekholong ea chelete ea indasteri, ho latela Mokhatlo oa Lefatše oa Semiconductor SIA. Mokhahlelong ona oa lihlahisoa tsa semiconductor, mahloriso a 'maraka le palo ea lik'hamphani tsa meralo li itšetlehile haholo ka mofuta o itseng oa chip. The personal computer central processing unit (CPU), tse inehetseng graphics processing unit (GPU), le field programmable gate array (FPGA) mebaraka ke ha e le hantle duopoly. Bafani ba li-circuits tse kopantsoeng ka ho khetheha (ASICs) ba arohane haholo, 'me tlhōlisano ea bona e matla le ho feta. Likarolo tsa lihlahisoa li kenyelletsa li-processor tsa ASIC le tsa ARM tse thehiloeng ho lisebelisoa tsa mohala. CPU ke setsi sa tšebetso se bohareng sa komporo, GPU ke processor e sebelisetsoang ho fana ka video, sehlahisoa sa FPGA se sebelisetsoa ho hlophisoa ke moreki kapa moqapi ka mor'a ho etsa, 'me ASIC ke chip ea tloaelo e etselitsoeng ts'ebeliso e itseng.

Tlaleho e lumela hore United States ke eona e etelletseng pele lefats'eng la moralo o kopaneng oa potoloho, 'me lik'hamphani tse ngata li sebelisa tlhahiso ea kantle ho naha kapa ho beha baqapi kantle ho United States ho fokotsa litšenyehelo tsa lichelete. Ha e le hantle, li-CPU tsohle tsa k'homphieutha tsa motho lefatšeng li entsoe ke lik'hamphani tsa Amerika Intel le AMD, tseo Intel e qetang ho etsa li-chip ka tlung, ha AMD e itšetlehile ka li-founderries ho tlatsa tlhahiso ea chip. Ho sa le joalo, Intel le AMD li kanna tsa laola sehlopha sa FPGA haufinyane, joalo ka ha AMD e phatlalalitse ka Mphalane 2020 hore e rerile ho fumana moetapele oa 'maraka oa FPGA Xilinx ka $35 billion. Haeba theko e fumana tumello ea taolo, AMD-Xilinx le Intel li tla ikarabella bakeng sa liperesente tse 85 tsa thekiso ea lefatše ea FPGA. Barekisi ba bang ba US Microchip Technology, Lattice Semiconductor le Achronix Semiconductor ba etsa karolo e setseng ea mmaraka oa FPGA. Karolo e kholo ea GPU ea lefats'e e ts'oaretsoe ke AMD le k'hamphani ea Amerika e etelletseng pele 'marakeng ea NVIDIA.

Tlholisano setsing sa barekisi ba ASIC e eketsehile haholo, 'me tlhokahalo ea li-processor tsa lisebelisoa tsa mehala ea meralo ea ARM e holimo. Baetsi ba li-chipmaker ba kang Samsung ba qothisana lehlokoa le mebaraka ea ASIC le ea mobile processor hammoho le lifeme tsa meralo e sa sebetseng joalo ka Qualcomm le Broadcom, le lik'hamphani tse ngata tsa theknoloji tsa US tse iketsetsang lichifi tsa tsona, ho kenyeletsoa Apple, Alphabet le Amazon. Ntle le Intel le Microchip, boholo ba barekisi ba CPU, GPU, FPGA, le ASIC lefatšeng ka bophara le US ha ba na thuso, ba itšetlehile ka tlhahiso ea lihlahisoa ho rala li-chips.

Ho latela SIA, li-memory chips li ne li sebelisetsoa ho boloka tlhaiso-leseling e hlokahalang bakeng sa akhaonto ea komporo bakeng sa 26% ea lekeno la indasteri. Memory chips ke mekhahlelo e rekisoang ka botlalo le ea tlholisano, 'me melemo ea bona le tsoelo-pele ea thekenoloji li itšetlehile ka ho feletseng ho chai le moruo oa tekanyo. Lihlahisoa tsa memori hangata li fanoa ke lik'hamphani tsa mofuta oa IDM. Samsung ea Korea Boroa le SK Hynix ea Korea Boroa li maemong a etelletseng pele lefapheng la mohopolo o matla oa phihlello (DRAM). Khamphani ea Amerika ea Micron e na le liperesente tse 23. Baetapele ba karohano ea 'maraka joale ba nts'etsapele mahlale a tsoetseng pele a ho paka (ke hore, die stacking) le IP bakeng sa lihlahisoa tse ling tse etellang pele. Likhamphani tsena tse tharo li nka karolo ea 95% ea 'maraka oa lefats'e oa $ 70 billion ka 2020.

Tlhahiso ea Flash memory (NAND) ha e tsepame haholo, 'me ho hakanngoa hore lik'hamphani tse tšeletseng li nka karolo ea 99% ea 'maraka oa lefats'e oa $47 bilione ka 2020. Samsung ea Korea Boroa hape ke moetapele oa 'maraka oa lihlahisoa tsa memori ea flash, e nang le karolo e fetang ea boraro ea NAND. mmaraka. Samsung ea Korea Boroa e lateloa ke Kioxia ea Japane (eo pele e neng e le Toshiba), e nang le karolo ea karolo ea 20 lekholong. Sebaka sa boraro sa lihlahisoa tsa memori ea flash ke Western Digital Corporation ea United States, e nkang karolo ea 14% ea kabelo. Hape karolong ena ke SK Hynix ea Korea Boroa (12%), Micron ea US (11%) le Intel ea US (9%). Likhamphani tsa lefats'e tsa NAND li bonahala li itokisetsa ho kopanngoa hape. Intel, eo lekhetho la sehlahisoa sa eona sa NAND le ts'oanang le Micron, e phatlalalitse ka Mphalane 2020 hore e rerile ho rekisa boholo ba khoebo ea eona ea memori ea NAND ho SK Hynix. Thekiso e tla susumelletsa khampani e kopantsoeng ho ea ho No. 2 ho karolo ea 'maraka ea NAND. Ho boetse ho na le litlaleho tsa hore Western Digital le Micron ba kanna ba batla ho fumana Kioxia. Ho phaella moo, Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC), k'hamphani ea Chaena e thehiloeng ka 2016, e ntse e eketseha ka potlako 'me e fumane chelete e ka bang $24 limilione tse likete ho lithuso. Mehloli ea mmuso oa China. Khamphani e ka khona ho hlahisa li-wafers tse ka bang 200,000 ka khoeli ka 2022, matla a fetang habeli a Intel a NAND, le tšokelo e ka bang theko e tlase ho lik'hamphani tsa memori tsa US.

Ha ho bapisoa le li-memory chips, thekiso ea lihlahisoa tsa potoloho e kopaneng ea analog ha e na tlholisano. Hape, ho feta moo, li-circuits tsa analog hangata ha li itšetlehe haholo ka ho sebelisa li-node tse tsoetseng pele tsa tlhahiso. Tšebeliso ea ho qetela tsamaisong ea kopo, tsebo le phihlelo ea ho qapa chip ke lintlha tsa bohlokoa ka bohlokoa ba lipotoloho tse kopantsoeng tsa analog. Ka hona, 'maraka oa lik'hamphani tsa lihlahisoa mona ha o phahame haholo, hobane lik'hamphani tsa potoloho tse kopanetsoeng tsa analog li ka boloka monyetla oa tlhōlisano ka ho lebisa tlhokomelo tšimong ea analog. Ka 2020, morekisi e moholo oa lefats'e oa li-circuits tse kopaneng tsa analog e ne e le karolo ea 62% ea 'maraka oa lidolara tse libilione tse 56, eo ho eona Texas Instruments e neng e ikarabella ho feta 10% ea mmaraka. Likhamphani tse ngata tse etellang pele tsa li-analog semiconductor ke bahlahisi ba "fab-lite", ba etsa tse ling tsa lichifi tseo ba li qapang ka tlung, leha ba boetse ba fana ka karolo e kholo ea lichifi.

Ka 2020, thekiso ea lefats'e ea lisebelisoa tsa discrete, lisebelisoa tsa optoelectronic le li-sensor (li-semiconductors tse sa kopaneng) lihlahisoa tsa semiconductor e tla ba lidolara tse limilione tse likete tse 79, e leng karolo ea 18% ea mmaraka oa semiconductor kaofela (kakaretso e ka bang $440 bilione). Lihlahisoa tse ngata tsa semiconductor sehlopheng sena li na le li-node tse hōlileng tsebong moo li theko e tlaase 'me ho tloaelehile hore sehlahisoa se le seng se be le chelete e ngata. 'Maraka oa lihlahisoa tse joalo o arohane haholo le bahlahisi ba bangata. Likhamphani tse seng tsa IC tsa semiconductor li kenyelletsa ABB Ltd. (Sweden/Switzerland), Infineon Technologies (Jeremane), STM Microelectronics (Italy/France), Toshiba (Japan), hammoho le lik'hamphani tsa US Diodes Inc., Vishay Intertechnology, Qorvo, dPix le Cree. Litheknoloji tsa bohlokoa tsa ho khanna bakeng sa lihlahisoa tse sa kopanngoeng tsa semiconductor, haholo-holo lihlahisoa tsa semiconductor tsa matla, ke mekhoa e mecha ea tsamaiso ea matla le miniaturization. Lihlahisoa tse joalo li sebelisa likoloi, haholo-holo likoloi tsa motlakase, e le li-terminals tsa bohlokoa tsa kopo. Gallium nitride (GaN) e laoloang ke US, silicon carbide (SiC), le likaroloana tse ling tsa motsoako oa semiconductor ke mahlale a bohlokoa bakeng sa lits'ebetso tse fapaneng. Li sebelisoa haholo taolong le kabong ea matla, ho phahamisa matla a maqhubu a phahameng, li-optoelectronics, le ts'ireletso ea naha. Lisebelisoa tsa semiconductor tse bonts'itsoeng ka phanele le tsona li oela sehlopheng sena.

Lebaleng la tshireletso ya naha, thekenoloji ya semiconductor le yona e tlameha ho tshwaneleha ho sebediswa maemong a mocheso (lefapha le atolositsweng) le ditikoloho tse thata, ho kenyeletswa le dibopeho tsa tekheniki bakeng sa tshebediso dibakeng tsa mahlaseli moo ho loketseng. Ntle le moo, ho hlokahala netefatso le netefatso ea likarolo tse thata le tse ikemetseng. Li-semiconductors tse sebelisoang lits'ebetsong tsa likoloi le tsona li tlameha ho fihlela litlhoko tsa nako e telele le liteko tsa ho mamella maemo a thata a tikoloho (mohlala, serame se feteletseng, mocheso o feteletseng le mongobo o feteletseng). Ba tlameha ho mamella ho thothomela le ho thothomela nakong eohle ea bophelo ba koloi ea lilemo tse 10 ho isa ho tse 20, 'me ba bontšitse litekanyetso tse tlase haholo tsa ho hloleha litekong ho feta li-semiconductors tse sebelisoang lihlahisoa tsa bareki ho netefatsa hore li fihlela litlhoko tsa polokeho ea koloi. Litlhoko tsena li lebelletsoe ho eketseha le ho ba thata le ho feta ha likoloi li ntse li ikemela haholoanyane 'me li sebelisa mokhoa oa ho lemoha leseli le ho feta (LiDAR), sonar, radar, litsamaiso tsa pono, le mahlale a ho tsamaea le a boitsebahatso.

Boitlhotlhollo: Sengoliloeng sena se hlahisitsoe hape ho tsoa ho "Mong. Wang Lao's Wine Restaurant Whisper". Sengoliloeng sena se emela maikutlo a sengoli feela, eseng maikutlo a Saco Micro le indasteri. Ke feela bakeng sa ho hatisa bocha le ho arolelana, 'me e tšehetsa tšireletso ea litokelo tsa thepa ea mahlale. Ka kopo, bontša mohloli oa mantlha le sengoli bakeng sa ho hatisoa hape. , haeba ho na le tlolo ea molao, ka kopo ikopanye le rona ho e hlakola.