(E Latela Karolo ea I: Moralo o Kopanetsoeng oa Potoloho)

Tse 'nè, mabapi le tlhahiso e kopanetsoeng ea potoloho

(I) Likhakanyo tsa motheo tsa Citigroup tsa indasteri ea tlhahiso ea IC

Lihlahisoa tsa semiconductor li tsamaisa hoo e batlang e le karolo e 'ngoe le e' ngoe ea moruo, ho kenyeletsoa matla, tlhokomelo ea bophelo bo botle, temo, lisebelisoa tsa elektroniki tsa bareki, tlhahiso le lipalangoang. Tlhokahalo ea tšebeliso ea pheletso ea lefats'e ea li-semiconductors ka 2019 ke: mehala ea cellular (26%), lisebelisoa tsa tlhahisoleseling le puisano (ho kenyeletsoa litsi tsa data, marang-rang a puisano) (24%); Lik'homphieutha (19%), indasteri (12%), likoloi (10%) le lisebelisoa tsa motlakase tsa bareki (10%).

Har'a lits'ebetso tsena tse fapaneng, hoo e ka bang 9% e ts'ehetsa ts'ireletso ea naha ka kotloloho le lits'ebetso tsa bohlokoa tsa meralo ea motheo. Ts'ebeliso ena ea mantlha ea sehlahisoa sa semiconductor e kenyelletsa sebaka sa sefofane, marang-rang a likhokahano, matla le lits'ebeletso, tlhokomelo ea bophelo bo botle le lits'ebeletso tsa lichelete. 'me 'muso o mong o sebelisa akhaonto bakeng sa karolo e fetang 1 lekholong feela ea tšebeliso ea semiconductor lefatšeng ka bophara.

Karolo ea US ea tlhahiso ea semiconductor ea lefats'e e theohile ho tloha ho karolo ea 37 lekholong ka 1990 ho ea ho karolo ea 12 lekholong kajeno, 'me ho lebeletsoe hore e fokotsehe ho feta ntle le leano le feletseng la US la ho tšehetsa indasteri.

Bokhoni ba Tlhahiso ea Amerika ha bo lekane: Matla a tlhahiso ea US a ntse a theoha ka mashome a lilemo. Lilemo tse leshome tsa pele tsa lekholo lena la lilemo li ne li le mpe haholo bakeng sa tlhahiso ea US, 'me karolo ea boraro ea mesebetsi ea tlhahiso e lahlile pakeng tsa 2000 le 2010. Likhoebo tse nyane le tse mahareng (li-smes) li bile le mathata a maholo. Karolo ea ho fokotseha ho ka bakoa ke tlhōlisano e tsoang linaheng tse nang le meputso e tlaase. Litsebi tsa moruo li hakanya hore hoo e ka bang karolo ea 25 lekholong ea tahlehelo ea mesebetsi e ka bakoa ke ho phahama ha Chaena, haholo-holo ka mor’a hore naha eo e kene Mokhatlong oa Lefatše oa Khoebo. Empa US e boetse e bone kholo ea tlhahiso ea lapeng e thekesela ha e bapisoa le balekane ba eona ba moruo, mohlala, e salletse morao Jeremane ka karolelano le liindasteri tse ngata. Kajeno, likhoebo tse nyane tsa United States hangata ha li hlahise litholoana ho feta bahlahisi ba baholo. Ho fapana le tumelo e atileng ea hore bohlale ba ARTIFICIAL le liroboto li haufi le sekhutlo, bahlahisi ba US ba likhoebo tse nyane le tse mahareng ba tsetela ka tlase ho mahlale a macha a ntlafatsang tlhahiso. Ho lahleheloa ke matla a tlhahiso ho lebisa tahlehelong ea bokhoni ba ho ntlafatsa. Bokhoni ba ho etsa tlhahiso ke motheo oa ntlafatso ea lihlahisoa. Hang ha bokhoni ba boqapi bo lahlehile, ho thata ho bo aha bocha. Ha matla a potoloho a INTEGRATED a falletse mose ho maoatle lilemong tse mashome tsa morao tjena, lipatlisiso le nts'etsopele le ketane e pharalletseng ea phepelo ea liindasteri li 'nile tsa latela hangata.

(2) Ketane ea phepelo ea lihlahisoa tsa semiconductor

Ho tloha ho moralo ho ea ho ho paka ho ea ho kopanyo ho lihlahisoa tsa ho qetela tsa elektroniki tse rekiloeng ke bareki, ketane ea indasteri e rarahane haholo 'me e qhalakane ho ea ka libaka. Ts'ebetso e tloaelehileng ea tlhahiso ea semiconductor e kenyelletsa linaha tse ngata mme lihlahisoa li ka tšela meeli ea machabeng makhetlo a 70 ka lebaka la boits'oaro bo ikhethang ba feme lihokelong tse ikhethileng. Ts'ebetso eohle e nka matsatsi a 100, ao matsatsi a 12 a fetisetsoang lipakeng tsa likhokahano tsa phepelo ea thepa. Se latelang ke setšoantšo se bonolo sa ketane ea phepelo.

Boholo bo bonyenyane le boima bo bobebe ba lihlahisoa tsa semiconductor ke lintlha tsa bohlokoa ho fihlella ketane e rarahaneng joalo ea phepelo ea libaka. Litsenyehelo tsa ho tsamaisa lihlahisoa tsa semiconductor li tlase ha li bapisoa le boleng ba tsona. Leha ho le joalo, ho boetse ho bolela hore ho sitisoa ha litsela tsa lipalangoang ho ka baka kotsi ho ketane ea phepelo. Mefuta e fapaneng ea lipalangoang (mohlala, moea, leoatle, teraka) e hloka ho sebelisoa ketane, ho latela sethala le sebaka se lokelang ho tsamaisoa, hammoho le mofuta oa sehlahisoa. Maemong a mang, lipalangoang li boetse li hloka ho tšoaroa ka mokhoa o khethehileng, joalo ka ho sebetsana le likhase tse kotsi le tse hloekileng haholo le lik'hemik'hale tse sebelisoang tlhahisong, kapa ho sireletsa lisebelisoa tsa elektroniki hore li se ke tsa senyeha.

Ho etsa semiconductor: sebopeho sa indasteri

Lifeme tse sebetsanang le li-wafers le ho etsa li-circuits tse kopaneng li na le mefuta e 'meli ea mantlha ea khoebo. Ea pele ke k'hamphani e kopaneng ea semiconductor kapa khoebo ea IDM. Ba etsa mehato eohle ea moralo oa sehlahisoa sa semiconductor le ts'ebetso ea tlhahiso ka tlung, ho tloha ho moralo ho isa tekong ea ho qetela. Likhamphani tsa IDM li nka karolo ea bobeli ho tse tharo ea matla a semiconductor lefatšeng ka bophara. Le hoja Intel, k'hamphani e ka sehloohong ea IDM United States, e hlahisa lisebelisoa tsa logic, boholo ba lik'hamphani tse ling tsa IDM li hlahisa li-memory chips tse kang DRAM, lisebelisoa tsa discrete le li-circuits tse kopantsoeng tsa analog. Ho phaella ho Intel, United States ke lehae la lik'hamphani tse 'maloa tse ka sehloohong tsa IDM lefatšeng, ho akarelletsa le Analog Devices, Maxim Integrated Products, MicrochipTechnology, micron, ho semiconductor le lisebelisoa tsa Texas. Ke habohlokoa ho hlokomela hore leha lik'hamphani tsena li le ntlo-khōlō United States, li etsa tlhahiso ea tsona ea ho qetela lifekthering lefatšeng ka bophara. Ho phaella ho US, mohlala, Intel e na le limela tse sebetsanang le li-wafer Israel, Ireland le Chaena. 'Me Samsung, e thehiloeng Korea Boroa, le lik'hamphani tse ling tse tsoang linaheng tse ling (tseo e seng tsa AMERICAN) li na le lifeme tsa li-chip United States ho phaella ho tsa mose ho maoatle (e seng tsa Amerika). Ho ea ka tlaleho ea SIA, 44% ea bokhoni ba lik'hamphani tsa semiconductor tsa US e United States. Ka kakaretso, likhoebo tsa IDM United States li bile le karolo ea 51% ea kakaretso ea chelete e kenang ea bahlahisi ba IDM lefatšeng ka bophara ka 2020. United States e matla ka ho khetheha lipotolohong tse kopantsoeng tsa logic tsa digital le li-circuits tse kopantsoeng tsa analog.

Ho na le lihlahisoa tse ling tsa American semiconductor tse etellang pele likhoebo (mohlala, AMD, nvidia, broadcom le qualcomm le game spirit) ke "no fabs semiconductor company" mohlala oa khoebo, k'hamphani e tla qapa lintlha ho fana ka k'hamphani e ikemetseng e khethehileng ho etsa lihlahisoa tsa semiconductor, ke likhoebo tse qalang ho etsa le ho lokisa lihlahisoa tsa chip. Mekhatlo ena ea batho ba boraro e khetholloa e le "lithehi tsa semiconductor tse hloekileng" hobane ha li iketsetse kapa ho rekisa lihlahisoa tsa tsona tsa chip, empa li sebetsa joalo ka baetsi ba konteraka bakeng sa lik'hamphani tsa fabless semiconductor (ka linako tse ling metheo ena e fana ka bokhoni bo eketsehileng kapa ho seng joalo e hlahisa li-chips tse itseng bakeng sa IDM. barekisi). Likhamphani tse ling tsa IDM, haholo-holo Samsung, le tsona li fana ka lits'ebeletso tsa ts'ebetso bakeng sa lik'hamphani tsa fabless semiconductor.

Ha theknoloji e ntse e tswela pele le ditjeo tsa ho aha le ho hlokomela dibaka tsa tlhahiso ya semiconductor tsa sejoale-joale di ntse di phahama ka lebelo le phahameng, mohlala wa kgwebo o se nang ditshila le wa foundry o ntse o ata haholo. Ditsela tse tswelang pele tsa theknoloji ya tlhahiso ya di-chip di hloka disebediswa tsa tlhahiso tse ntjha ka ho felletseng le tse turang haholo. Di-fab tsa sejoale-joale (ho di-node tsa tshebetso tsa 5nm) di bitsa bonyane $12 bilione. Mochini o le mong o feteletseng wa Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, o hlokahalang ho 5 nm kapa ka tlase mme o atisa ho sebediswa ho 7 nm, o ka bitsa tjhelete e kaalo ka $150 milione. Ntle le mechini ya photolithography, di-fab di hloka mefuta e meng e mengata ya disebediswa. Ho hakanngwa hore matsete a hlokahalang bakeng sa moloko o latelang wa di-fab, o tla sebetsa ho di-node tsa 3nm, a ka feta $20 bilione. Ho feta moo, kamora ho thehwa ha di-fab tse ntjha, ditjeo tsa tshebetso di tla ba hodimo haholo mme di hloka matsete a tswelang pele le a turang a motse-moholo; Ho boetse ho hlokahala ho boloka theknoloji ya maemo a hodimo e hlokoang ke baqapi ba ditsamaiso ho tswela pele ho sebetsa ho di-node tsa tlhahiso tse tswetseng pele ka ho fetisisa. Li-foundry tse hloekileng li rua molemo moruong oa boholo bo li lumellang ho monya le ho monya litšenyehelo tse kholo tsa limela tsa semiconductor ka tšebeliso e phahameng le e sebetsang hantle ea bokhoni. Li-foundry tse hloekileng li etsa hoo e ka bang karolo ea boraro ea bokhoni ba chip lefatšeng ka bophara, ho ea ka SIA. Har'a tsona, tlhahiso ea li-chip tsa logic e ne e etsa hoo e ka bang 80%. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), e leng feme ea pele ea wafer e hloekileng lefatšeng, e thehiloe ka 1987 'me e laola' maraka oa li-foundry kajeno.

Mmaraka oa tlhahiso ea likonteraka o laoloa ke lik'hamphani tsa Taiwan, 'me TSMC feela e ikarabella bakeng sa 53% ea 'maraka. Ka kakaretso, lik'hamphani tsa Taiwan tsa ho etsa litene li ikarabella bakeng sa 63% ea 'maraka oa lefats'e oa ho etsa litene. Korea Boroa e ikarabella bakeng sa 18% le Chaena bakeng sa 6%. GlobalFoundries, feme ea founding e thehiloeng US, e nang le ABU Dhabi, e na le karolo ea 7%, e ikarabellang bakeng sa karolo e fetang halofo ea 13% e setseng ea 'maraka oa founding.

Jwalo ka ha ho boletswe ka hodimo, le hoja US e na le karolo e kgolo ya mmaraka ho di-chip tse hlahiswang ke dikgwebo tsa IDM, e ikarabella feela ka hoo e ka bang 10% ya lekeno la lefatshe la di-foundry. Di-foundry tsa Asia di ikarabella bakeng sa hoo e ka bang 80% ya kakaretso. Taiwan feela e ikarabella bakeng sa 63% ya tlhahiso ya dikonteraka tsa lefatshe. Seo se bolela hore le hoja US e le moetapele wa moralo wa di-semiconductor, dikhamphani tsa yona tsa lehae tse se nang dingolwa di itshetlehile haholo ho bahlahisi ba dikonteraka ba kantle ho naha, haholoholo Asia, ho etsa dihlahiswa tsa bona. Le hoja mohlala ona wa kgwebo ya moemeli o loketse dihlahiswa tsa potoloho e kopaneng bakeng sa dikopo tsa kgwebo tse ngata, dikopo tse ngata tse amanang le tsona di ka dihlopha tse nyane, e leng se etsang hore ho amohelwa ha mahlale a tlhahiso ya di-semiconductor a tsoetseng pele bakeng sa dikopo ho se tsitse ebile ho be thata.

Bakeng sa United States, boholo ba tlhahiso ea li-semiconductor (ka bobeli mehlala ea IDM le ea foundry) e etsoa linaheng tse ling: Taiwan, Korea Boroa, Japane, Chaena le United States. Hoo e ka bang 12% ea bokhoni ba tlhahiso ea li-semiconductor lefatšeng bo fumaneha United States, ho tloha ho 37% lilemong tsa bo-1990. Ka 2019, Taiwan e ne e ikarabella bakeng sa hoo e ka bang 20% ​​ea bokhoni bo kentsoeng lefatšeng ka bophara, e lateloa ke Korea Boroa ka 19%. Japane e ne e ikarabella bakeng sa 17%, Chaena 16% le Europe 9%. 6% e setseng ea bokhoni e fumaneha Singapore, Iseraele le likarolong tse ling tsa lefats'e.

Har'a libaka tse 40 tse kholo tsa tlhahiso ea li-semiconductor tse United States, halofo (20) e sebelisa li-wafers tsa 300 mm (12 inch); Tlhahiso e 'ngoe e sebelisa li-wafers tsa 200 mm (8 inches) kapa ka tlase. Pakeng tsa 2009 le 2018, limela tse fetang 100 150-200mm tse etsang li-wafer li koetsoe lefatšeng ka bophara, ka 70% ea ho koaloa ha US le Japane. Ho latela IC Insights, limela tse ka bang 68 tse etsang li-wafer li na le mashome a lilemo, ho feta nako ea tsona ea bophelo. Masela a koetsoeng a nkeloa sebaka ke lisebelisoa tse ncha tse bolokang chelete e ngata kapa tse ntlafalitsoeng; Ho boetse ho na le masela a theko e boima haholo hore a ka a sebetsa, 'me lik'hamphani li fetohela masela a bobebe kapa mefuta ea khoebo e se nang kelello.

Ka lapeng, lik'hamphani tse tšeletseng li sebelisa masela a 20 300 mm liprofinseng tse robeli, joalo ka ha ho hlalositsoe tafoleng e ka tlase. Ntle le Skorpios, lik'hamphani tse ling tse hlano le tsona li sebelisa lifeme tsa li-wafer kantle ho US.

Jwalo ka ha ho boletswe ka hodimo, Intel e na le mesebetsi ya tlhahiso ya di-semiconductor Iseraele, Ireland le Chaena. Ntle le di-fab tsa yona United States, Micron e tsamaisa di-fab Singapore, Japane le Taiwan. Texas Instruments e na le tlhahiso ya di-wafer Chaena, Malaysia, Taiwan le Philippines, hammoho le Texas. GlobalFoundries ke di-founder tse etelletseng pele tsa di-wafer tse hlwekileng US mme ke tsa emirate ya ABU Dhabi ka letlole la leruo la boipuso la Mubadala mme e na le ditsha tsa tlhahiso ya di-wafer Jeremane le Singapore. Ka 2019, khamphani e ile ya hlakola merero ya ho bula fab Chengdu, Chaena.

Le hoja matla a tlhahiso ea li-chips a US a batla a tsitsitse, bokhoni le tlhahiso ka ntle ho US e ntse e hōla, haholo-holo Asia. Ka lebaka leo, SIA e bolela esale pele hore karolo ea US ea matla a semiconductor e tla theohela ho karolo ea 10 lekholong ka 2030, ha karolo ea Asia e tla hōla ho 83 lekholong. Ka selemo sa 2019, ha ho le e 'ngoe ea litsi tse tšeletseng tse ncha tsa tlhahiso ea semiconductor e ileng ea buloa lefatšeng e neng e le United States, empa tse 'nè li ne li le Chaena.

Joalo ka ha ho hlalositsoe karolong ea "Design" ea tlaleho ena, ho na le mefuta e meraro ea mantlha ea li-chips: memori, logic kapa digital, le analog. Joalokaha chate e ka tlaase e bontša, likarolo tse sa tšoaneng tsa lefatše li ipabola libakeng tse sa tšoaneng. Mohlala, ke liperesente tse 5 feela tsa li-memory chips tse hlahisoang United States, ha li bapisoa le liperesente tse 44 tsa Korea Boroa le liperesente tse 14 ho Mainland China. Ka mohopolo, China e ile ea shebana le katoloso e potlakileng ea Changjiang Storage, e abela k'hamphani lithuso tsa $ 24 billion (bakeng sa semela sa eona sa Wuhan feela). Katoloso ea eona le lihlahisoa tsa eona tsa theko e tlase li beha tšokelo e tobileng ho MICron le Western Digital, baetsi ba li-memory chip ba US.

Ho di-chip tsa logic kapa tsa dijithale (tse kang dikhomphutha le di-microprocessor tsa difouno tsa thekeng), US ha e hlahise di-node tse tswetseng pele tsa tshebetso (tse ka tlase ho di-nanometer tse 10), ha Taiwan e na le diperesente tse 92. Theknolojing e nngwe ya logic lock, United States e etella pele haholo: 43% ya di-chip tsa logic tse tswetseng pele ka ho fetisisa (10-22 nm), le 6% ho isa ho 9% ya moloko o fetileng (28 nm le ab).ove) li-chips tsa logic li hlahisoa United States; Taiwan e hlahisa karolo ea 47 lekholong ea li-chip tse joalo tsa logic, ha Chaena eona e hlahisa karolo ea 19 ho isa ho 23 lekholong ea li-chip tsa logic. Qetellong, bakeng sa karolo ea analog/discrete component, 19% e hlahisoa United States, 17% Chaena, le hoo e ka bang 27% Korea.

(iv) Tlhahlobo ea tlhahiso e kopaneng ea potoloho

United States e haelloa ke matla a tlhahiso maemong a tsoetseng pele a theknoloji:

US e haelloa ke bokgoni ba tlhahiso ya di-semiconductor bakeng sa di-node tse tswetseng pele ka ho fetisisa tsa tshebetso ya di-semiconductor (hajwale di nanometer tse 5), tseo hajoale di sebediswang feela ke TSMC (Taiwan) le Samsung (Korea Borwa). FAB e tsoetseng pele ka ho fetisisa United States ke mohala oa ts'ebetso oa 10-nm o sebelisoang ke Intel, o sa lebelloang ho kenya tlhahiso e felletseng ea 7-nm ho fihlela 2023, mme e phatlalalitse ka Pherekhong 2021 hore e tla sebelisa "ntlafatso" ea TSMC 7-nm kapa. ka tlase ho mohala oa tlhahiso bakeng sa lihlahisoa tsa eona tsa morao-rao tsa potoloho ea logic. Ka lebaka leo, lik'hamphani tsa US fabless chip joale li itšetlehile ka ho feletseng ho bahlahisi ba Asia, haholo-holo TSMC, ho hlahisa li-chips tse tsoetseng pele ka ho fetisisa (7nm kapa tse nyenyane). Ntle le likotsi tsa ketane ea phepelo e bakoang ke tlhahiso e tsepamisitsoeng tikolohong, khaello ea bokhoni ba morao-rao ba thekenoloji ea lehae e phahamisa matšoenyeho a ts'ireletso ea naha, kaha lits'ebetso tse ling li hloka phihlello e sireletsehileng ea theknoloji ea morao-rao ea ts'ebetso ho netefatsa bophahamo ba thekenoloji.

Chelete e kenang thekisong ea lihlahisoa tsa chip e ipapisitse le China:

Baetsi ba li-chip ba Amerika le bona ba itšetleha haholo ka thekiso ho China ka lebaka la ho laola tlhahiso ea lisebelisoa tsa elektroniki. China ke 'maraka o moholo ka ho fetisisa oa li-semiconductors, tseo boholo ba tsona li romelloang hape ha li ntse li bokelloa ka har'a lisebelisoa tsa elektroniki, ho kenyeletsoa lisebelisoa tsa elektroniki tsa bareki le lisebelisoa. Mohlala, mofani oa thepa ea mohala oa mohala oa Qualcomm o fumane karolo ea bobeli ho tse tharo ea lekeno la eona ho tsoa China, ha moetsi oa memori Micron a fumana 57% ea lekeno la hae ho tsoa China, ho latela data ea 2018 ho The Economist. Intel e tlalehile ka 2020 hore China e ikarabella liperesente tse 26 tsa lekeno la eona. Ho itšetleha haholo ka thekiso ea China ho fa mmuso oa China matla a moruo le monyetla oa ho iphetetsa khahlanong le United States.

Takatso ea China ea ho etella pele indasteri ea semiconductor:

Karolo ea China ea indasteri ea semiconductor ea lefats'e e batla e le nyane, 'me lik'hamphani tsa eona li etsa li-chips tsa boemo bo tlase. SMIC, lihlahisoa tse tsoetseng pele ka ho fetisisa tsa China, li ka hlahisa li-node tsa 14-nanometer feela 'me li na le bokhoni bo fokolang. Leha ho le joalo, Chaena e bohareng ba boiteko bo boholo bo etelletsoeng pele ke mmuso ba ho ntshetsa pele indasteri ea eona ea IDM ea matsoalloa a moo, ka sepheo sa ho etsa hore indasteri e be moetapele mafapheng 'ohle ka 2030. Kabelo ea China ea semiconductor wafer e eme ho liperesente tse 16 ka 2019 empa e lebelletsoe ho hola ho liperesente tse 28 ka 2030. Mmuso oa Chaena o fana ka lithuso tsa $ 100bn bakeng sa indasteri ea eona ea semiconductor, ho kenyelletsa le nts'etsopele ea limela tse ncha tse 60 tsa tlhahiso. Joalo ka ha ho hlalositsoe karolong ea "moralo" ea phepelo ea phepelo, China e tšehelitse ka matla baetsi ba eona ba memori ho senya ts'epo ea eona ho lik'hamphani tse tharo tse kholo ka ho fetisisa tsa memori lefatšeng: Samsung (Korea Boroa), SK Hynix (Korea Boroa) le Micron (US). ). Micron, k'hamphani ea memori ea Amerika, ke tlholisano e tobileng ea polokelo ea Changjiang mme e kanna ea ba khamphani ea pele ea Amerika ho bona tlholisano ea eona ea kamoso le boqapi bo sokeloa ke lithuso tsa Machaena ho bahlolisani ba eona.

Boitlhotlhollo: Sengoloa sena se hatisitsoe hape ho tsoa ho "Mong. Wang's Restaurant talk", sengoloa sena se emela maikutlo a sengoli feela, ha se emele maikutlo a Sakwei le indasteri, feela ho hatisa le ho arolelana, ho ts'ehetsa ts'ireletso ea litokelo tsa thepa ea mahlale, ho hatisa hape. ka kopo bonts'a mohloli oa mantlha le mongoli, haeba ho na le tlolo ea molao, ka kopo ikopanye le rona ho hlakola.